Blog Post 1.7 - "Does Campaigning Work?"

1. All types of outreach, including door to door canvassing, phone banking, direct mail, and even advertising has no effect on voters' choice of candidate in a general election. No one targeted is persuaded, unless these tactics are used in primary elections and ballot-initiative campaigns. Campaigns can turn out voters who already made up their mind and voters can change their minds when prompted by politicians they like. 
2. A 2015 primary, a special election that year, and the 2016 election. 
3. Actions that happen within two months of the election had an effect of basically zero (-1.9%). 
4. Actions close to elections do not change peoples' minds, but actions taken further away from the election had a real chance of changing someone's opinion, but the effect will likely be gone by election day. 
5. Campaign activities are likely to have an effect in primary and special elections, but not in general elections. 
6. Boosting turnout, primary election, and perhaps special election persuasion is possible.
7. Groups would probably do better by boosting turnout at the end of an election rather than persuading people early on. Campaign funders may also want to donate more to primary elections and ballot initiatives. 
8. The 2008 US Senate race in Oregon was between Gordon Smith, a pro-life, pro-LGBT (for a Republican at the time), moderate, and Jeff Merkley, who was pro-choice. Planned Parenthood and NARAL Pro-Choice Oregon worked together to educate pro-choice voters on Smith's actual views regarding abortion, as it was a common misconception that Smith was pro-choice. Canvassers also left flyers attacking North Carolina governor Pat McCrory on his position on the "bathroom bill." Since they targeted black voters in particular, the campaign was successful. 
9. Voter registration efforts are costly, about $60 per vote, far more expensive than turnout efforts.
10. Persuasion nets two votes by both adding one to your side and subtracting one from your opponent's side, whereas finding new voters just adds one vote.