Blog Post 2.4 - "Looking Ahead to 2018"

1. Twelve House Republicans and two Senate Republicans have announced they do not plan to run for reelection in 2018. 
2. Only two House Democrats are not running again, and zero from the Senate.
3. The only time there was a discrepancy between the parties this big was 2008, which turned out to be a major year for Democratic victories. 
4. Many Republicans fear a backlash against their party as a result of Trump's low ratings, and this fear is exacerbated by Virginia's recent Democratic wins. Others may simply not be willing to face a tough and uncertain election, or they may not want to be in the minority even though their seat is probably safe. Some say there are limits to a certain committee or subcommittee position they hold, or others may just want to retire. 
5. Safe red districts may be threatened by a potential backlash against the Republican party as a result of Trump's performance, reflected in his low approval rating. 
6. Incumbents hold a natural advantage in elections, as a result of their name recognition, history of wins reflecting a certain amount of popularity, etc., so the fact that Democrats don't have to run against a Republican with that advantage means they will face somewhat easier elections. 
7. Strong or potentially strong candidates are more likely to run in an open-seat election than against an incumbent, since they feel they have a better chance of winning. This may be the case with Jeff Van Drew, who has for years refused to run against incumbent LoBiondo. 
8. In neutral congressional years, the advantage has recently been somewhere between 3 and 7 percent.