Blog Post 4.1 - "Midterm Predictions"

1. Conor Lamb's win is unusual because Donald Trump won that district by more than 20 percentage points. 
2. Democratic swing is the difference between the special election results and the district's partisan lean (which is itself the difference between how the county voted and how the country voted in the last two presidential elections).
3. The Alabama special election for the Senate saw the largest Democratic swing, followed by the special election for Kansas's 4th Congressional District and Pennsylvania's 18th.
4. Generic ballot results show a slight lead for Democrats - by only 8 or 9 percentage points - compared to the 16 or 17 percentage point average that Democrats have led by in the special elections. The discrepancy is because generic ballot polling is conducted among registered voters or all adults, not actual voters. 
5. 60 percent of Democrats say they have a high degree of interest in the midterm elections, whereas 54 percent of Republicans say the same thing. 
6. The Republican Party poured $9 million into the campaign, and had Trump campaign there days before the election. They also focused on their tax cuts and sanctuary cities. 
7. Trump's approval ratings are now at 43%, 4 percentage points higher than it was in January. 
8. Voters seem to disapprove of the Republican Party at this point in time. Most of this disapproval may be directed to the "establishment," or congressional Republicans, rather than the President, considering the uptick in his approval ratings.