Blog Post - "New Sec of State??"

1. The Senate Foreign Committee has 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats. 
2. Since Republicans control the Senate, they get to decide committee assignments. Naturally, they will thus ensure that Republicans are the majority in every committee, but since there is only a narrow majority of Republicans then there is not going to be a huge majority in any committee. 
3. All 10 Democrats have said they will not vote for Pompeo, and Republican Rand Paul has said the same. Unless one of them changes their mind, that means Pompeo will not get support from a majority of the committee.
4. The GOP can still bring his confirmation vote up to the full Senate floor regardless of the committee's decision, and it will do so. He will probably squeak through the Senate because two Democrats have said they will support him, making him Secretary of State.
5. Both of the Democrats are from states that Trump won easily, so they want to appease their voters. 
6. He is a West Point and Harvard Law School graduate, he is an Army veteran, and he was a three-term member of Congress who won important spots on the House Intelligence Committee and the Select Committee on Benghazi. He was also the CIA Director. 
7. He distorted intelligence about Russia during his tenure as CIA Director, and he seems to just be a Trump crony. He has also received support comparable to Tillerson, who many see as one of our worst secretaries of state ever. 

Blog Post 3.5 - "It's Lammy!"

1. Alexander co-sponsored a bill with Democratic Senator Patty Murray to stabilize the Affordable Care Act's insurance marketplaces. The Trump administration worked clandestinely to undermine the law, and Democratic leaders said that anti-abortion demands were untenable. Finding middle ground became like "wandering in a lot of gunfire is what it is." 
2. To Gregg, Alexander is a governing person, a person who likes compromise, in a time of nihilistic, populist extremism. 
3. He wanted to focus more on his policymaking role. He felt he was just heading a "parade that's already formed," and not really taking positions on policy. 
4. Alexander walked across the state of Tennessee and interact with people in their own communities. Outside of his campaign, the current administration was involved in an ethics scandal.
5. His aides think Obamacare is terrible, horrible, and basically evil. 
6. Rather than publicly criticizing the president, he would get some of his colleagues and have a personal and private intervention. 

Blog Post 4.4 - "Protests & Town Halls"

1. One in five Americans have protested in the streets or participated in a political rally since the start of 2016. 
2. Women's rights drew the most protesters. 
3. Republicans see recent protests as more violent and divisive than protests of the 1960's even though they have been peaceful. In general, protests are seen as more violent and activists as more extreme. 
4. 83% of those who have protested say they will vote, whereas only 62% of those who have not protested say they will vote in the midterms. 
5. Town halls are intended to be events where representatives can speak directly to their constituents, and constituents to their representatives. Town Hall for Our Lives is specifically for gun control legislation and intends to organize a town hall for all 435 representatives. 
6. Town halls have historically been the staging grounds for political pressure on other topics like the Affordable Care Act in both 2009 and 2017. This may indicate a transformation in the way people think about gun control as an issue to actually go and vote for. 
7. In 2017, town halls were used to put pressure on lawmakers to not repeal Obamacare, making the Affordable Care Act more popular and leading to its survival. 

Blog Post 4.3 - "This Week in Civil Rights"

1. A new question will ask which members of a household are US citizens. 
2. Asking about citizenship will provide more information about the people in the United States, and more information is good. This question had been in every census except the 2010 census. 
3. People believe that the Trump administration will not use that data for good reasons but is instead part of a movement to bring America back to before the civil rights era. The question might also scare people away from answering the census. 
4. The count would be decreased if they don't answer, which means their congressional apportionment and federal funding would be smaller.
5. Federal law prevents the Census Bureau from sharing information. 
6. The administration is right that the question used to be part of the census, because it was part of the long-form census until very recently. However, its critics are also correct because it was not part of the short-form census, so the majority of respondents did not answer that question since the 1950's. Basically, it's been on one form of the census every time except 2010, but it has not been on the mandatory census since 1950.
7.  The DOJ says it needs to know where eligible voters, specifically eligible minority voters, live to better enforce the Voting Rights Act. Therefore, they need to know who is a citizen. 
8. In 2016 and 2017, the Census Bureau could not conduct field tests because Congress did not properly fund them. 
9. Democrats are worried that many Latinos will be worried that their data will be shared and therefore won't respond to the census, further marginalizing that population and decreasing Democratic seats in Congress. 
10. There is an initial mailed census survey, and then census takers visit individual houses that did not respond to the initial survey up to six times. If that didn't work, then they would get information from neighbors, or they would assume that the household looks like the nearest available neighbor.
11. African-Americans, and particularly African-American men, are typically undercounted, as are Latinos. 
12. Usually, census questions go through a pretesting process, but the 2020 census is already past that stage, meaning the question probably missed that entire process. 

Blog Post 4.2 - "Due Process!"

1. Those having been accused have not been deprived of life or liberty. In the question of the loss of property through the loss of a job, due process is not applicable to the situation because no legal action has been started. Instead, an organization or government can decide to terminate someone for an accusation if the accusation is believed to be credible, and if Porter or others like him wish they could file for wrongful termination, in which the underlying accusations would likely receive the full due process of the law. 
2. Legal actions begin with charges, that then require proof, leading to a judicial decision. 
3. The government cannot charge you with a crime or take other action against you without notifying you of the charges or proposed action, and you must be given the opportunity to present your side of the story to a neutral fact-finder before action is taken. 
4. The person accused of a crime always has the right to be heard, but not necessarily to be believed. 
5. Journalists have to hear the other side by confirming their stories and seeking responses from those accused, making sure that everything is well-sourced and well-documented. 
6. Legal due process is well-defined, if varied. It has a general definition as the right of an individual to be heard before the imposition of punishment or penalties by the government. Cultural due process, on the other hand, may be influenced by legal ideas but is really just a reaction to perceived unfairness, abuse, or oppression. 
7. Roy Moore seems to have used the term "due process" to avoid public judgment on his conduct without actually offering reason to reach any conclusion other than a negative one. 
8. Typically, due process requires some kind of hearing or procedure to prevent the government from arbitrarily depriving some of a life, liberty, or property interest. Basically, it requires that a person be heard.
9. Substantive due process, according to Tidmarsh, is a bit more controversial (it's what Roe v. Wade is based on), since it is not clear how much the Constitution requires this kind of due process. Procedural due process is clearer in that it requires the government to observe certain procedural protections before depriving a person of life, liberty, or property. 

Blog Post 4.1 - "Midterm Predictions"

1. Conor Lamb's win is unusual because Donald Trump won that district by more than 20 percentage points. 
2. Democratic swing is the difference between the special election results and the district's partisan lean (which is itself the difference between how the county voted and how the country voted in the last two presidential elections).
3. The Alabama special election for the Senate saw the largest Democratic swing, followed by the special election for Kansas's 4th Congressional District and Pennsylvania's 18th.
4. Generic ballot results show a slight lead for Democrats - by only 8 or 9 percentage points - compared to the 16 or 17 percentage point average that Democrats have led by in the special elections. The discrepancy is because generic ballot polling is conducted among registered voters or all adults, not actual voters. 
5. 60 percent of Democrats say they have a high degree of interest in the midterm elections, whereas 54 percent of Republicans say the same thing. 
6. The Republican Party poured $9 million into the campaign, and had Trump campaign there days before the election. They also focused on their tax cuts and sanctuary cities. 
7. Trump's approval ratings are now at 43%, 4 percentage points higher than it was in January. 
8. Voters seem to disapprove of the Republican Party at this point in time. Most of this disapproval may be directed to the "establishment," or congressional Republicans, rather than the President, considering the uptick in his approval ratings.  

Blog Post 3.5 - "Trump and Circuit Courts"

1. The district court is a trial court within the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, and the appellate court is a step higher than the district court, which oversees all individual districts. 
2. The Ninth Circuit in particular has been stereotyped as a liberal outlier whose decisions are usually overturned by the Supreme Court. It is also the largest appellate court.
3. The Ninth Circuit was transformed under Jimmy Carter, who appointed 15 of 23 judges to the appellate court during his tenure, all of which were progressive. 
4. Liberal decisions include a ruling that the Second Amendment does not recognize an individual right to bear arms and that the "Under God" part of the Pledge of Allegiance is unconstitutional as a government endorsement of religion. 
5. Most appellate court decisions are overturned by the Supreme Court, because why would the Supreme Court grant an appeal if it didn't think it would overturn a lower court decision. 
6. The Sixth and Eleventh Courts are overturned more often than the Ninth Court, both of which are conservative. 
7. Ideology seems to play no role in which decisions are overturned. The lowest reversal rate is for a moderate court, followed up by a liberal then a conservative court. 

Blog Post 3.4 - "RIP EPA"

1. He would have to find an actual flaw in the rule, then deal with a public commenting process and replace the former rule with new regulations. Lawsuits are basically unavoidable. 
2. The EPA is now unable to enforce their regulations as effectively as they were under Obama. As a result, environmental law enforcement has declined, having started 30 percent fewer cases and collected 60 percent fewer fines under Pruitt and Trump than under Obama in the same time period. 
3. The agency's enforcement division now has to seek approval from headquarters to investigate potential violations of regulations, which slows down efforts to catch those violators. 
4. Pruitt has already attempted to remove at least19 environmental regulations. 
5. Critics say that stringent regulations are beginning to reach diminishing returns and cost businesses and individuals more and more to comply. 
6. Courts have blocked the EPA's attempt to suspend rules on methane emissions and denied a request to spend years researching lead paint, instead providing 90 days. 
7. Eight states are suing the EPA for failing to expand ozone regulations. Other states are suing the EPA for not controlling air pollution moving across state lines. 
8. Senate opposition has led to some nominees withdrawing their names from consideration, and Senate Democrats are pressing him hard in committee hearings. They already have a plan for the EPA if they win this November. 

Blog Post 3.3 - "Quick Shut Down"

1. Congress failed to pass a new law funding the government before the old one expired. 
2. Essential services still continue, like the military, law enforcement, Social Security services, and air traffic controllers. Everyone deemed nonessential (40% of employees), like park services workers, are furloughed. 
3. Republicans need Democratic votes to get to the supermajority of 60 and pass the budget, so Democrats said they would not vote for the budget to pass without a deal on DACA. 
4. Keeping the government shut down on behalf of Dreamers is not seen too positively politically, and many Democrats are facing a tough reelection year in red states. Since the shutdown happened over the weekend, it was not a huge deal unless it extended over the week, so Democrats opted to restart the government quickly. 
5. The budget for the Children's Health Insurance Program was extended for six years, so state funding is secure and the families that were about to lose coverage can rest easy. 
6. Mitch McConnell said there would be a vote on some sort of bill addressing the status of Dreamers within the next two and a half weeks, and if nothing happened during that time that he would bring it up himself. 
7. The Democratic Party's backing down from the conflict has led to disappointment from its base and from activists, who are growing disillusioned with the party. 
8. Trump got the government reopened without making any concessions, and Republicans approve of his actions more than Democrats approve of their party's, and he did this by doing nothing. 
9. 62% of Democrats blame Trump for the shutdown. 
10. 85% of Republicans blame Democrats in Congress for the shutdown. 

Blog Post 3.2 - "25th Amendment"

1. The cabinet and vice president would simply have to put it in writing that they think the president is mentally unfit and send that to two people: the Speaker of the House and the Senate president pro tempore. 
2. It takes nine people to remove the president: the vice president and eight cabinet members. 
3. The president can dispute the cabinet and vice president, and if he does so, Congress votes on the matter. The vice president remains acting president if he gets 2/3 of the vote of both houses of Congress. 
4. John F. Kennedy's assassination made Congress make an official plan for presidential succession. 
5. Before the 25th Amendment, the VP office would simply remain vacant if it became so during a term. 
6. There is no elaboration on what it means for the president to be unable. It could mean physical or mental health, or it could simply entail poor character or disagreement. 
7. To make the decision to remove the president, the vice president and cabinet would have to face the scrutiny of the public, and possibly the courts. This means they would have to document everything and provide their reasoning, so they couldn't remove the president for no reason at all. Also, since those that initiate the process are nominated by the president, they are unlikely to begin a coup. 

Blog Post 3.1 - "What's up with POTUS lately?"

1. States resisted the commission, failing to provide information that the commission states is basic and the states declare is overreach. 
2. His administration has declared that there is substantial evidence of voter fraud but has never provided this proof. He also claimed that millions of people voted illegally in 2016, which cost him the popular vote. 
3. Only 35 total credible accusations between 2000 and 2014, just a few hundred ballots at most, when more than 800 million ballots were cast in national general elections and a few more hundred million were cast in other elections. 
4. Only one out of nearly 4.8 total million votes in 2016, which is only 0.00002% of all votes. 
5. Trump cites a 2012 Pew Center report, which didn't even look at voter fraud. 
6. Republicans use voter fraud to enact real changes in policy that lead to voter suppression of minority and Democratic votes, particularly eligible black voters. 
7. Sessions has rescinded previous guidelines from the Obama administration that allowed states to legalize marijuana without federal intervention. Federal prosecutors can use their own discretion in cracking down on marijuana businesses in states where recreational use is legal. 
8. The Obama administration allowed states to legalize marijuana as long as they met certain criteria. They took a soft approach to enforcing restrictions. 
9. The Cole memo said that as long as states followed some rules, like not letting kids get legal pot or not letting it go across state borders, then the federal government wouldn't crack down. States can carry out their own legalization schemes with little federal interference. 
10. The new policy could cost potential jobs and tax revenue and hurt efforts to legalize marijuana. It is possible that the Justice Department could shut down the entire legal marijuana industry. No one will have any idea about the legality about any situation. 
11. Congress could legalize marijuana at the federal level, or at least limit federal enforcement. 
12. It lets the federal government go against the wishes of popular votes, and it also goes against the wishes of national opinion, even among Republicans.