Blog Post 3.3 - "Quick Shut Down"

1. Congress failed to pass a new law funding the government before the old one expired. 
2. Essential services still continue, like the military, law enforcement, Social Security services, and air traffic controllers. Everyone deemed nonessential (40% of employees), like park services workers, are furloughed. 
3. Republicans need Democratic votes to get to the supermajority of 60 and pass the budget, so Democrats said they would not vote for the budget to pass without a deal on DACA. 
4. Keeping the government shut down on behalf of Dreamers is not seen too positively politically, and many Democrats are facing a tough reelection year in red states. Since the shutdown happened over the weekend, it was not a huge deal unless it extended over the week, so Democrats opted to restart the government quickly. 
5. The budget for the Children's Health Insurance Program was extended for six years, so state funding is secure and the families that were about to lose coverage can rest easy. 
6. Mitch McConnell said there would be a vote on some sort of bill addressing the status of Dreamers within the next two and a half weeks, and if nothing happened during that time that he would bring it up himself. 
7. The Democratic Party's backing down from the conflict has led to disappointment from its base and from activists, who are growing disillusioned with the party. 
8. Trump got the government reopened without making any concessions, and Republicans approve of his actions more than Democrats approve of their party's, and he did this by doing nothing. 
9. 62% of Democrats blame Trump for the shutdown. 
10. 85% of Republicans blame Democrats in Congress for the shutdown. 

Blog Post 3.2 - "25th Amendment"

1. The cabinet and vice president would simply have to put it in writing that they think the president is mentally unfit and send that to two people: the Speaker of the House and the Senate president pro tempore. 
2. It takes nine people to remove the president: the vice president and eight cabinet members. 
3. The president can dispute the cabinet and vice president, and if he does so, Congress votes on the matter. The vice president remains acting president if he gets 2/3 of the vote of both houses of Congress. 
4. John F. Kennedy's assassination made Congress make an official plan for presidential succession. 
5. Before the 25th Amendment, the VP office would simply remain vacant if it became so during a term. 
6. There is no elaboration on what it means for the president to be unable. It could mean physical or mental health, or it could simply entail poor character or disagreement. 
7. To make the decision to remove the president, the vice president and cabinet would have to face the scrutiny of the public, and possibly the courts. This means they would have to document everything and provide their reasoning, so they couldn't remove the president for no reason at all. Also, since those that initiate the process are nominated by the president, they are unlikely to begin a coup. 

Blog Post 3.1 - "What's up with POTUS lately?"

1. States resisted the commission, failing to provide information that the commission states is basic and the states declare is overreach. 
2. His administration has declared that there is substantial evidence of voter fraud but has never provided this proof. He also claimed that millions of people voted illegally in 2016, which cost him the popular vote. 
3. Only 35 total credible accusations between 2000 and 2014, just a few hundred ballots at most, when more than 800 million ballots were cast in national general elections and a few more hundred million were cast in other elections. 
4. Only one out of nearly 4.8 total million votes in 2016, which is only 0.00002% of all votes. 
5. Trump cites a 2012 Pew Center report, which didn't even look at voter fraud. 
6. Republicans use voter fraud to enact real changes in policy that lead to voter suppression of minority and Democratic votes, particularly eligible black voters. 
7. Sessions has rescinded previous guidelines from the Obama administration that allowed states to legalize marijuana without federal intervention. Federal prosecutors can use their own discretion in cracking down on marijuana businesses in states where recreational use is legal. 
8. The Obama administration allowed states to legalize marijuana as long as they met certain criteria. They took a soft approach to enforcing restrictions. 
9. The Cole memo said that as long as states followed some rules, like not letting kids get legal pot or not letting it go across state borders, then the federal government wouldn't crack down. States can carry out their own legalization schemes with little federal interference. 
10. The new policy could cost potential jobs and tax revenue and hurt efforts to legalize marijuana. It is possible that the Justice Department could shut down the entire legal marijuana industry. No one will have any idea about the legality about any situation. 
11. Congress could legalize marijuana at the federal level, or at least limit federal enforcement. 
12. It lets the federal government go against the wishes of popular votes, and it also goes against the wishes of national opinion, even among Republicans. 

Blog Post 2.6 - "Lobbying & Tax Reform"

1. One part of the House version of the bill could cost General Electric more than a billion dollars in taxes, specifically, the part that removes a deduction of some overseas losses on a one-time tax on overall overseas earnings. 
2. The Senate version allows them to use those losses when calculating its tax liability. 
3. Foreign airlines want to eject a provision in the Senate bill that would require them to pay taxes on income earned on US flights in some cases. Delta wants to keep this provision to raise their own profits. 
4. Number 4 is missing.
5. It will go to a conference committee where it will be merged with the House bill and sent to the White House for the president's signature. 
6. The real estate business is worried that doubling the standard deduction will discourage people from itemizing their tax returns and claiming the mortgage deduction, which is a key incentive for people to buy homes. 
7. The Build Coalition represents a group of associations from the telecommunications, manufacturing, and agricultural industries. 
8. The corporate tax rate would be slashed from 35% to 20%, and a new 25% tax rate for "pass through" businesses like partnerships, sole proprietorships, and family farms.
9. The Not One Penny interest group wants to ensure that the new tax plan is not a boon for the rich. 
10. They have been advertising in congressional districts to pressure lawmakers. It is unclear whether they are advertising to the people, in which case it would be grassroots lobbying, or if they are advertising directly to legislators, in which case it would simply be lobbying. 

Blog Post 2.5 - "Lisa Murkowski"

1. Lisa Murkowski from Alaska and Susan Collins from Maine.
2. She has said that "tax reform is complicated...when you add health care reform...it continues to complicate it," which seems to indicate a no vote. However, she has carefully stated that this is not a definitive position. She has also stated that she favors repealing the individual mandate, but this is also not definitive. 
3. Republicans added a rider that would allow portions of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to be drilled for oil and natural gas. 
4. The proposal to begin drilling in that area has been immensely popular in Alaska, so much so that opposing it is political suicide. It could be a financial boon to Alaska as a whole. 
5. The rate of uninsured persons in Alaska fell 7.2% after the passage of Obamacare, and she doesn't want to see that reversed, especially since Republican plans were supposed to hit Alaska particularly hard. 
6. The Refuge was created in 1960, so drilling was probably not allowed for 57 years. It would have been permitted in 1980, 37 years ago, but the lack of an environmental impact study and Congressional approval means that it is still not allowed. 
7. Each Alaskan that has been in the state more than a year gets a check paid from the dividend of the earnings on the Permanent Fund, which in previous years has been around $2,200 but this year is projected to be around $1,100.
8. As an instructed delegate, Murkowski would reflect the views of her constituency. Since a significant chunk of people want to keep Obamacare, she would probably support the tax plan if a stabilization bill were passed in conjunction. If not, she would still probably vote for the plan, since not all of Alaska wants Obamacare, but all of it wants to open up the refuge to drilling. As a trustee, she would act according to her best judgment, which seems to be wavering. I'm not entirely sure how she would vote, but I would guess that she would not vote for it, since she seems to think that health care is important. Finally, as a partisan, she would vote according to her party, which means she would vote in favor of the bill.

Blog Post 2.4 - "Looking Ahead to 2018"

1. Twelve House Republicans and two Senate Republicans have announced they do not plan to run for reelection in 2018. 
2. Only two House Democrats are not running again, and zero from the Senate.
3. The only time there was a discrepancy between the parties this big was 2008, which turned out to be a major year for Democratic victories. 
4. Many Republicans fear a backlash against their party as a result of Trump's low ratings, and this fear is exacerbated by Virginia's recent Democratic wins. Others may simply not be willing to face a tough and uncertain election, or they may not want to be in the minority even though their seat is probably safe. Some say there are limits to a certain committee or subcommittee position they hold, or others may just want to retire. 
5. Safe red districts may be threatened by a potential backlash against the Republican party as a result of Trump's performance, reflected in his low approval rating. 
6. Incumbents hold a natural advantage in elections, as a result of their name recognition, history of wins reflecting a certain amount of popularity, etc., so the fact that Democrats don't have to run against a Republican with that advantage means they will face somewhat easier elections. 
7. Strong or potentially strong candidates are more likely to run in an open-seat election than against an incumbent, since they feel they have a better chance of winning. This may be the case with Jeff Van Drew, who has for years refused to run against incumbent LoBiondo. 
8. In neutral congressional years, the advantage has recently been somewhere between 3 and 7 percent. 

Blog Post 2.3 - "Media Coverage of Trump"

1. Right-leaning media outlets cited fewer types of sources, offered fewer negative and more positive evaluations of Trump and his administration, and had reporters that were less likely to challenge something the president said than left-leaning or more neutral outlets.
2. Left-leaning outlets used more types of sources and were more likely to use Trump and his administration, outside experts, or interest groups as sources. They were also more likely to include both Republican and Democratic perspectives. 
3. They were at least three times more likely to have negative coverage of Trump. 
4. Left-leaning sources refuted statements 15% of the time, whereas right-leaning ones refuted only 2%. 
5. Stories about the president's political skills, immigration, presidential appointments and nominations, U.S.-Russia relations, and health care. 
6. Most stories were structured around Trump's character and not his policy. This is probably because he is such a cartoon that focusing on his character will get more views, and there is also not that much policy to review that is reasonable enough to seriously discuss. 
7. The most common sources were Trump and his administration (74%), another news organization or journalist (35%), and Republican and Democratic members of Congress (26% and 21% respectively).
8. Studies with two or more source types were more likely to have a negative assessment. 
9. Twitter was used as a source in 16% of stories. 
10. Coverage of Trump and his administration has been much less focused on policy and much more negative than it was for previous presidents.